DeletedUser
Let see, 2% chance to find flag in 30 minutes, so 98%chance to NOT find flag. chance to not find flag in 6 hours is 78%
Chance to not find flag in 12 hours is 61%
Chance to not find flag in 17 hours is 50%- So Half the people needed to guard fort at least 17 hours..
Chance to not find flag in 24 hours is 38%
Chance to not find flag in 48 hours is 14%
Chance to not find flag in 72 hours is 5%- out of 50,000 people, thats 2500
Chance to not find flag in 100 hours is 2%
Chance to not find flag in 150 hours is .2%- still aprox 100 unlucky people
The odds for the 3 notes/hernando's sword are even worse- and they expect you to DESTROY it???
I believe there's an error in this calculation, though (the same error that gamblers fall for)...that would be the law of independent trials. The result of a previous attempt has no bearing on any future attempts. You're set at 2% for every 30 minutes. Therefore, for each 30 minutes you work, you only have a 2% chance to find the item. To rephrase the above, it should look more like:
Let see, 2% chance to find flag in 30 minutes, so 98%chance to NOT find flag. chance to not find flag in 6 hours is 12 chances at 98% per chance
Chance to not find flag in 12 hours is 24 chances at 98%% per chance
etc.
It is conceivable that you will NEVER find the flag.