46 Hours Guarding the Fort

DeletedUser

Kevlar33 said:
Let see, 2% chance to find flag in 30 minutes, so 98%chance to NOT find flag. chance to not find flag in 6 hours is 78%
Chance to not find flag in 12 hours is 61%
Chance to not find flag in 17 hours is 50%- So Half the people needed to guard fort at least 17 hours..
Chance to not find flag in 24 hours is 38%
Chance to not find flag in 48 hours is 14%
Chance to not find flag in 72 hours is 5%- out of 50,000 people, thats 2500
Chance to not find flag in 100 hours is 2%
Chance to not find flag in 150 hours is .2%- still aprox 100 unlucky people

The odds for the 3 notes/hernando's sword are even worse- and they expect you to DESTROY it???
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I believe there's an error in this calculation, though (the same error that gamblers fall for)...that would be the law of independent trials. The result of a previous attempt has no bearing on any future attempts. You're set at 2% for every 30 minutes. Therefore, for each 30 minutes you work, you only have a 2% chance to find the item. To rephrase the above, it should look more like:

Let see, 2% chance to find flag in 30 minutes, so 98%chance to NOT find flag. chance to not find flag in 6 hours is 12 chances at 98% per chance
Chance to not find flag in 12 hours is 24 chances at 98%% per chance
etc.

It is conceivable that you will NEVER find the flag.
 

DeletedUser

Doc Foley said:
46 Hours and still no Union Flag.... wtf?!?!? This is the stupidest s&*t ever! Somebody tell me there's a light at the end of the tunnel...
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It took me double that, with work premium as well!!...It's just bad luck mate. One guy on here did it 2nd go!..Lucky!..
 

DeletedUser

Robbinvw said:
took me 3 hours :D

flagtk8.png
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hmm, may i ask how come you have 24h clock time displayed on your reports?
i have 12h clock time (with AM and PM) but i want to have like you have!
 

DeletedUser

the grass is always greener huh? :huh:

saying that the energy is greener too lol
 

DeletedUser

Robbinvw said:
took me 3 hours :D

flagtk8.png
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:eek:hmy: Ohhh you have a green energy bar...mine is a yukky blue :sad:

Oh never mind didn't realise there was a page 3 on which I found out why lol.
 
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DeletedUser

carrying around 129$, i would have duelled u but i can't. your duelling level is too low
 

DeletedUser

everybody go to a church pray for a bit then guard the fort and you will increaser your chances it took me a shift of30 min then i got the flag
 

DeletedUser

when you do the quest
Optimization of profits (Starvation wages)

You will get 3 days premium of higher income:) This also give you 50% better chance to find a product on a job. This will give 3% to find the flag instead of 2%

This worked for me along with 15 min prayer.
 

DeletedUser1105

mdntranger said:
I believe there's an error in this calculation, though (the same error that gamblers fall for)...that would be the law of independent trials. The result of a previous attempt has no bearing on any future attempts. You're set at 2% for every 30 minutes. Therefore, for each 30 minutes you work, you only have a 2% chance to find the item. To rephrase the above, it should look more like:

Let see, 2% chance to find flag in 30 minutes, so 98%chance to NOT find flag. chance to not find flag in 6 hours is 12 chances at 98% per chance
Chance to not find flag in 12 hours is 24 chances at 98%% per chance
etc.

It is conceivable that you will NEVER find the flag.
Click to expand...

I have tried explaining this to people before but it was difficult to get them to understand. Well phrased.
 

DeletedUser

Luck to get the union flag is about 2 or a higher then 2%.Probably your motivation is go down for a while.Do some other jobs and then come back and do that job again
 
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DeletedUser

haristiho said:
Luck to get the union flag is about 2 or a bigger then 2%.Probably your motivation is go down for a while.Do some other jobs and then come back and do that job again
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the luck to find a item on a job wil not decrease with motivation for the job. This will first get in the game in update 1.16(friday)

  • There will be female working process pictures (for the top right of the screen).
  • The town logs now stay for 7 days.
  • Character banners will be available under Settings->Profile->Signature. These are images with information like your name, town, class, level that you can use on your homepage or forum.
  • The server time will be visible in the browser window title.
  • Player's will be able to scroll to their current work in one click, as well as other minor changes.
  • Motivation will influence the chance of getting an item.
 

One Armed Ninja

Well-Known Member
lbstyrer, I believe that is referencing to the random Items you can get while working, not the products that you find.

But I may be wrong
 

DeletedUser

46 hours! pfffft

Took me well over 60 on World 1. Been different on the other worlds but still high.

Man the cheese up. It's a 2% chance you'll get one. YOU work out the odds you'll get one easily.

Stop *****ing and do other things. Only go back to it with 100% motivation and maybe even after a prayer but even then stop crying about it. It's the same for all of us BUT some peeps get lucky.

Jeez! How many threads are there about the blooming flag for goodness sake!
 
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DeletedUser

yeah quinnesstain has right.It took me about 8 hours and still nothin'.cheese that.do prayer and start again.Only item i found is pebble.Bullcheese
 
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DeletedUser

Lol...

I am lvl 8, I have guarded the fort three times, and have 2 flags...and a pebble...
 

DeletedUser

If you do the same job more than once in a day you reduce your luck so best is to do the job once daily and you will stand a better chance of getting quest items.

And of course pray before doing it as that increases your chances (I am told and so far it works for me)
 
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