DeletedUser
U sure about that ?
I got it same as lbstyrer. They didn't precise which item they could have said it could affect the luck or product if just one imo
U sure about that ?
I got it same as lbstyrer. They didn't precise which item they could have said it could affect the luck or product if just one imo
DeletedUser
obviously not sure. hence: "But I may be wrong"
DeletedUser
Don't understand basic probabilities, eh?
DeletedUser
I was following this thread with interest as i was also having trouble getting my flag - doing fort duty off and on in between other jobs. Another thing I noticed is that I was not getting many goodies on any job I was doing.............so I took the suggestion to go pray for 15 minutes ( I had done it off and on early in my game but for some reason I forgot all about it) and then I went and did duty for 2 hours and VOILA! I ended up with 2 flags!!
Moral: Prayer works!?
Moral: Prayer works!?
DeletedUser
I understand them very well...thought I explained as such, too. Since each attempt is independant of each other, the CHANCE of finding the item remains at %2 per try, each try. Some people assume that if they look for this item 50 times that they're guaranteed to find the item...that's just not the case.
Here's where everyone gets steered wrong....probabilty CAN change as you combine the trials. So...for each 30 minutes, you have a 2% chance of getting the flag or, as the original poster put it, a %98 chance of not getting it (98 in 100 or 49/50). The odds of not getting the flag for 20 straight attempts would be (49/50)^20 or 0.68. This means that you have a 68% chance that you will not find the flag each time over those 20 attempts. This does NOT mean that your finding the flag event is coming more due as the single attempt to find the flag still remains at 2%.
Let's take this to a coin flip....a 50/50 chance of heads or tails (1 in 2). The odds of getting heads 20 times in a row is (1/2)^20 or 1 in 1048576. Remember...this is the odds of getting heads 20 times in a row. This does NOT mean that if you've gotten 20 heads that the next flip is more likely to be Tails....that next flip is still a 50% chance (1 in 2). The coin does not 'remember' each of its previous results...same as with the flag. Each INDEPENDANT attempt has the same chance....50% for a coin flip, 2% to find the flag.
DeletedUser
That's exactly what the op was saying...ya you have a 2% chance of finding it each time you do it, and after multiple attempts your overall chance of finding it increases
DeletedUser
No...it doesn't. Each time is still a 2% chance.
For example....I look for the flag 1000 times and never get it. When I look for it on the 1001st time, I still only have a 2% chance of finding it. The odds of me not finding the flag 1001 straight times is (49/50)^1001 or 1 in 606314887....BUT....the single instance of me finding that flag on that 1001st time is still ONLY 2%.
So...the probability of not finding the flag over multiple attempts decreases...however each chance is still 2%.
The point I'm trying to make is that you cannot do the job x amount of times to be GUARANTEED the flag. Many people mistakenly add all those 2%'s together and say that I've done the job 50 times....I should have received the flag by now because 50 times is 100% chance of getting the flag.
Kevlar...My apologies to you. Your calculations are correct, I just misread the way you were presenting it. The reason I initially took exeption (and didn't fully calculate out the consective odds of not finding the flag) was that I felt it also mislead people into thinking that they are guaranteed the flag the more attempts they have.
It is still conceivable that you will NEVER find the flag....however, the probability of that happening decreases with each subsequent attempt. Just remember, EACH attempt is still only a 2% chance that you will find it. Finding the flag has no memory, and the probability as Kevlar presented it takes memory into account.
Long story short....just because you didn't find it for (insert a large number here) attempts does NOT mean that you will get it on your next attempt because you're 'due'....your next attempt is still only a 2% chance of finding it. All that can really be said if you don't find it on that next attempt is that you're a very unlucky person as the probability of not finding the flag over (same large number) attempts is very small.
For example....I look for the flag 1000 times and never get it. When I look for it on the 1001st time, I still only have a 2% chance of finding it. The odds of me not finding the flag 1001 straight times is (49/50)^1001 or 1 in 606314887....BUT....the single instance of me finding that flag on that 1001st time is still ONLY 2%.
So...the probability of not finding the flag over multiple attempts decreases...however each chance is still 2%.
The point I'm trying to make is that you cannot do the job x amount of times to be GUARANTEED the flag. Many people mistakenly add all those 2%'s together and say that I've done the job 50 times....I should have received the flag by now because 50 times is 100% chance of getting the flag.
Kevlar...My apologies to you. Your calculations are correct, I just misread the way you were presenting it. The reason I initially took exeption (and didn't fully calculate out the consective odds of not finding the flag) was that I felt it also mislead people into thinking that they are guaranteed the flag the more attempts they have.
It is still conceivable that you will NEVER find the flag....however, the probability of that happening decreases with each subsequent attempt. Just remember, EACH attempt is still only a 2% chance that you will find it. Finding the flag has no memory, and the probability as Kevlar presented it takes memory into account.
Long story short....just because you didn't find it for (insert a large number here) attempts does NOT mean that you will get it on your next attempt because you're 'due'....your next attempt is still only a 2% chance of finding it. All that can really be said if you don't find it on that next attempt is that you're a very unlucky person as the probability of not finding the flag over (same large number) attempts is very small.
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DeletedUser
over half the people who do this will find a flag on or before the 50th attempt if the 2% is accurate (~63%). Because of that, I would expect to have gotten the flag by 50. However, you're right that you can do it for a lot longer than that and still not have gotten it, but that's exactly what chance means.
To put it in perspective, if one million people start doing the job and keep going until they receive the flag, there will be ~41 people who are still going after 500 tries (and there is a pretty good chance another one of those people will find the flag on the next attempt)
To put it in perspective, if one million people start doing the job and keep going until they receive the flag, there will be ~41 people who are still going after 500 tries (and there is a pretty good chance another one of those people will find the flag on the next attempt)
DeletedUser
naw its easy to get note 2 ive gotten it at least 2 times in as many weeks and thats taking into account i do jobs other than trading so i wiuld probably get it more oft if i just did trading
DeletedUser
mdntranger,
You are right, the odds don't change. I'd like to make a correction to your statement earlier in the thread that gamblers make this mistake, bad gamblers make this mistake, the good ones exploit it.
Ultimately you are saying the same as everyone else though. If you make enough attempts, over the course (from attempt 1 to attempt of for example, 100) your chances of winning are higher, but after 100 attempts, you're in no better shape (but also no worse, except for fatigue and morale) than you were on your first attempt.
However I do disagree that you can possibly never win on a 2% chance. After a million attempts you would still only have a 2% chance on the next attempt, but statistically you're going to get it from the million attempts.
You are right, the odds don't change. I'd like to make a correction to your statement earlier in the thread that gamblers make this mistake, bad gamblers make this mistake, the good ones exploit it.
Ultimately you are saying the same as everyone else though. If you make enough attempts, over the course (from attempt 1 to attempt of for example, 100) your chances of winning are higher, but after 100 attempts, you're in no better shape (but also no worse, except for fatigue and morale) than you were on your first attempt.
However I do disagree that you can possibly never win on a 2% chance. After a million attempts you would still only have a 2% chance on the next attempt, but statistically you're going to get it from the million attempts.
DeletedUser
took me 1 try on 30 minutes
DeletedUser
I would pray in between