not a chance in....

DeletedUser

One 30 min period : 3% total chance of finding one
One hour period: 5.91% total chance of finding at least one
Two hour period: 11.48% total chance of finding at least one

Yeah I know its not what you thought, but that is how chance works.
 

DeletedUser

Hightower said:
One 30 min period : 3% total chance of finding one
One hour period: 5.91% total chance of finding at least one
Two hour period: 11.48% total chance of finding at least one

Yeah I know its not what you thought, but that is how chance works.
Click to expand...

But when you go past 2 hours it becomes an adding game due to been independent events.
 

DeletedUser

Hightower said:
One 30 min period : 3% total chance of finding one
One hour period: 5.91% total chance of finding at least one
Two hour period: 11.48% total chance of finding at least one

Yeah I know its not what you thought, but that is how chance works.
Click to expand...

i thought it was 3% every half an hour didnt realize the 3% went down a lil bit each time

Anyway of accurately working it out, calculation for example?
 

DeletedUser

After 23 half hour periods of trying you have 50.37% odds of getting a flag (0.97^23=0.4963)
Each 23 periods after that halves the chances of not getting a flag...or there about
 

DeletedUser

Llama said:
After 23 half hour periods of trying you have 50.37% odds of getting a flag (0.97^23=0.4963)
Each 23 periods after that halves the chances of not getting a flag...or there about
Click to expand...

Correct, thanks for the clarification, its been a few decades since I took statistics :)

That is a much better way of explaining it.

So if you expended 240 energy, searching for a flag 40 times, you still would only have a 61.2% chance of finding it.

Hence my first post, of praying before I went and did a search.
 
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DeletedUser

I just wonder how is guarding a fort do you get a flag?

guard a fort 50 times and they thank you with a flag?
 

DeletedUser

Llama said:
Just looked at the quest chain at west stats...if it wern't so damn impossible to get the flag this would be the most awesome quest ever :D
Click to expand...

I got it first try in Alpha, pissed everyone off :)
 

DeletedUser

this is how it works.

k (constant) = 1 - 0.03 = 0.97

for 30 minutes: 1 - 0.97 = 0.03 (3%)
for 1 hour: 1 - (0.97 * 0.97) = 0.0591 (5.91%)
for 2 hours: 1 - (0.97 ^ 4) = 0.1148 (11.48%)


(nver thought statistics would be handy in this game :p)
 

DeletedUser

Hightower said:
pray.png


Need I say more?

damn flag
Click to expand...

It'd be so awesome if I get it on the first attempt.
 
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