DeletedUser
You do have a point there Alex. I could have been shot alot more then twice 
Thanks Dusty, I need all the help I can get.
Thanks Dusty, I need all the help I can get.
DeletedUser
lol just got 4 beansi two hours, guess I'm super lucky
DeletedUser
i find that doing any job for less than 1 hr - reduces the chance of getting the items -
so rather than do 30 mins do 1 to 2 hrs u'll get the item faster ....usually.
i can't get my last pc of leather for the grandfather quest -golden hawk - i have tanned leather so long that my motivation has fallen to 89% - so i am just lvling as fast as i can - the quest will fall into place
so rather than do 30 mins do 1 to 2 hrs u'll get the item faster ....usually.
i can't get my last pc of leather for the grandfather quest -golden hawk - i have tanned leather so long that my motivation has fallen to 89% - so i am just lvling as fast as i can - the quest will fall into place
DeletedUser
hehe
that fort and flag - wow can't get it for world 7 - put in over 20 hrs too.
but the 2nd 2hour hitch time my soldier guarded the fort he got the damn flag plus xp
which was kinda graet - wish i could have sent that flag to myself from world 4 to world 7
that fort and flag - wow can't get it for world 7 - put in over 20 hrs too.
but the 2nd 2hour hitch time my soldier guarded the fort he got the damn flag plus xp
which was kinda graet - wish i could have sent that flag to myself from world 4 to world 7
DeletedUser
I had 2 flags and sold my second one in hopes it would go back into play. Seems world 7 has very few flags anyway. Maybe I goofed but what the hey.:dry:
DeletedUser
How about this I'm a level 25 and been attacted by a level 45 how does this work? i thought you could only attack people 3 or 4 levels below or above. cheers
DeletedUser
skipper you may want to post that in one of the many dueling threads in this forum. You'd probably get a better answer to it.
Most times I never do a job less then 1 hour .. I was just low on energy and thought I'd try it anyway and see what happened.
Most times I never do a job less then 1 hour .. I was just low on energy and thought I'd try it anyway and see what happened.
DeletedUser
Probabilities...
You just expressed a common fallacy when thinking about probabilities. They are not additive. Your outcome on the last try does not affect the probability on the next attempt. Even if you tried 10 times in a row and didn't find your cotton, the probability that you will find it on the next try is still 50/50. However, casinos make a lot of money on people thinking that their number or whatever is "due" to come in next time...
Good luck my friend.
You just expressed a common fallacy when thinking about probabilities. They are not additive. Your outcome on the last try does not affect the probability on the next attempt. Even if you tried 10 times in a row and didn't find your cotton, the probability that you will find it on the next try is still 50/50. However, casinos make a lot of money on people thinking that their number or whatever is "due" to come in next time...
Good luck my friend.
DeletedUser
but the probability of not finding it decreases as you have the following chance I believe
.5 to the power of the number of 30 min segments done.
i.e. 5 30 mins done = .5x.5x.5x.5x.5 = 0.03125 or a 3% chance of not finding it.
DeletedUser
You are correct, the events as a whole are very unlikely. But, I guess I was just trying to point out that even being very unlucky 5 times in a row doesn't change the chance of finding cotton on the 6th try. Each attempt exists on an island. They have no affect on each other.
DeletedUser
The Raven feather is driving me CRAZY!!
DeletedUser
but it does effectivly cange the fact that the odds shown stay at 50% doesn't mean the actual odds don't change, If you only have a 3% chance of not having found it must mean there is a 97% chance of having found it? Or does the other 47% disappear
DeletedUser
All that may be so but remember if you continue to do the same job over and over again then you motivation drops.
When your motivation drops so does you pay and experience points and I assume so does your luck at finding the product.
When your motivation drops so does you pay and experience points and I assume so does your luck at finding the product.
DeletedUser
thanks for that will do gl
DeletedUser
Assume nothing. Either know you know it or you don't know it.
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DeletedUser
Thats nice.
DeletedUser
Motivation affects pay, experience and luck (which concerns items like shoes) but not the chance to find a product (like ham).
DeletedUser
true
DeletedUser
hehe, I must be one lucky s.o.b. Been getting what I've been aiming for first time out everytime.
DeletedUser
oki, here's a better example
I do the saw quest. A damn saw has 10% chance to be found in 30 mins. I worked in the last 6 weeks, careful so motivation don't drop under 80%, worked 22 hours. Yes, 22. In 1 hour and 2 hours shifts. Yep, no damn saw.
Shortly put, the chance to not find it it's under 1%.
For those who like computing:
chance to have an event after doing n runs, is P = 1 - (1-p)^n
(where p is the probability to have the event after 1 run and ^ means raised at power n)
So, in my case it's:
P=1-(1-10%)^(22 * 2) ~ 99.03%
So, with that low probability i can't find that saw, really a mess with this probability.
I do the saw quest. A damn saw has 10% chance to be found in 30 mins. I worked in the last 6 weeks, careful so motivation don't drop under 80%, worked 22 hours. Yes, 22. In 1 hour and 2 hours shifts. Yep, no damn saw.
Shortly put, the chance to not find it it's under 1%.
For those who like computing:
chance to have an event after doing n runs, is P = 1 - (1-p)^n
(where p is the probability to have the event after 1 run and ^ means raised at power n)
So, in my case it's:
P=1-(1-10%)^(22 * 2) ~ 99.03%
So, with that low probability i can't find that saw, really a mess with this probability.