Probability #2

[nashy19]

If you choose to answer this question at random
what is the chance you will be correct?

a: | b: | c: | d:
25%|50%|0%|25%

[spoil]No answer here, just the mandatory anime girl.

[/spoil]​

 

[DeletedUser]

Russell's paradox

 

[DeletedUser]

The answer is 25%.

That would be the case whatever the percentages were as long as they added up to 100%. If we call the percentage of each answer a, b, c, d and we know that the choice is random (i.e. 0.25 chance of each) then the probabilty of guessing right is

0.25a + 0.25b + 0.25c + 0.25d = 0.25(a + b + c + d) = 0.25 as we know a + b + c + d = 1

 

[DeletedUser9470]

There is no correct solution for the question as posed.
So there's effectively a 0% chance of getting it right, irrespective of that answer being a choice or not.

if 25% is the correct answer then you have a 50% chance of picking 25%(2/4 answers)
if 50% is the correct answer then you have a 25% chance of picking 50%(1/4 answers)
if 0% is the correct answer then you have a 25% chance of picking 0%(1/4 answers)

as such it is impossible to answer this question at random correctly.
as such the chance that you will be correct is 0%.

 

[DeletedUser]

Russell's paradox

How is that Russell's paradox? "The set of all sets which are not members of themselves." Did you mean Russell Crowe's paradox and not Bertrand Russell's? I prefer the Grelling–Nelson paradox myself.

 

[DeletedUser]

don't you know the answer is E?

 

[DeletedUser28032]

i'd say 0% because you haven't actually asked a question you've only supplied us with four answers...or perhaps i am looking into it too deeply

 

[DeletedUser]

now that I've looked at the question a second time, I've realized that it's asking for an opinion......it's like asking what your favorite color is.....there's no correct answer.....

 

[DeletedUser]

Orange

 

[nashy19]

Yes, it is orange.

 

[DeletedUser9470]

I change my answer.
the probability that I chose the correct answer is 100%, because I'm like that.

 

[DeletedUser]

Some overthinking going on here, to the point of distorting the question. It asks you what the likelihood that you will choose the correct percent change listed in the 4 possible answers. I.e., what is the chance you will choose the correct answer, if you chose randomly.

How is that Russell's paradox? "The set of all sets which are not members of themselves." Did you mean Russell Crowe's paradox and not Bertrand Russell's? I prefer the Grelling–Nelson paradox myself.

Although this is an alternative presentation, it is nonetheless an example of Russell's paradox. If you randomly chose a or d (25%), the chance is 50% you would have chosen a or d, so it cannot be the correct answer. If you chose b, it cannot be 50%, because there is only a 25% chance you would choose b. If you chose c, it cannot be 0%, because there is a 25% chance you chose c.

There is no correct answer and yet the answer is provided, but it is an incorrect choice. I.e., the paradox. In this particular case, Russell's paradox.

 

[DeletedUser]

There is no correct answer. I.e., paradox. In this particular case, Russell's paradox.

I still don't see how it's Russell's paradox.

And yes, orange is correct.

 

[DeletedUser]

hehe, while you were typing that, I clarified the answer.

"There is no correct answer and yet the answer is provided, but it is an incorrect choice. I.e., the paradox. In this particular case, Russell's paradox."

 

[DeletedUser]

hehe, while you were typing that, I clarified the answer.

"There is no correct answer and yet the answer is provided, but it is an incorrect choice. I.e., the paradox. In this particular case, Russell's paradox."

I believe the correct name for it would be Nashy's Paradox.