AGW, another thread

DeletedUser

there have been tons of measurements made, from changing temperatures to analyzation of drilled ice cores. these are straight numbers, same as sticking a thermometer in your mouth to see if you had a fever or not.

what you see as sciam's bias is actually it reporting on credible sources, as previously stated.
 

DeletedUser

Let's see here, John Rennie who is editor in chief of Scientific American says,

"So the best you can do is present lots of different views and leave it to the - your, your audience to try to piece together the truth for themselves. But on some scientific issues, that’s really not the best you can do.You don’t want to have stories structured in such a way that, for example, you have one global warming supporter who is quoted, representing 98 percent of the scientific community and then matched up against one other person who’s a denier, who’s given effectively the same amount of space. Because then people in your audience could be left with the idea that there is a more equal balance in how seriously those ideas are taken."

Effectively he has stated that he has no interest in depicting an alternate view and will even sacrifice the principle of balance so that he may depict his "majority" view only. After all the readers don't have to think outside of the small box of one way rhetoric he gives them, at least that's how he sees it.

Straight numbers that mean, the Earth has been warmer and colder than it is now. That shows the planet's temperature changes naturally. That present the fact that temperatures can fluctuate oddly for long periods. Ice cores and temperatures don't tell you man is causing global warming.
 

DeletedUser

This majority view of john's is many groups of scientists independently verifying that AGW is real.
Ice cores are a very good record over hundreds of thousands of years, the current temperature fluctuations are way outside of the bounds of fluctuations past. If water vapor is what's causing global warming, why is it occurring now and not at a different time?
 

DeletedUser

But he will give no dissenter an audience. He believes his job is to present one imbalanced view, which is basically bias. There is no defending the fact of bias.

Why are temperatures fluctuating now? Well just so you know global warming is a concept that has been replaced by climate change (due to the fact the entire Earth is not warming and to take that into account they made it climate change instead). Continuing on, the temperature fluctuation is not dependent only on water vapor as there are sunspots and other activity in space that can effect conditions on Earth. Why the temperature is fluctuating is due to a variety of factors. Not one is influenced strongly by human activity.

And how far out are the fluctuations compared to others in history?
 

DeletedUser

lol global warming is the same as climate change, just one is more politically correct than the other. moving on, co2 is positively correlated with temperature and it is only after the industrial revolution that co2 levels have spiked far beyond where they've ever been before.
 

DeletedUser

Rice, your debate approach is atrocious and lazy. Instead of researching the issues and sources, you keep asking questions, allowing Laffitte to sit on a pedestal and "edumacate the masses" with his misinformation. And then your rebuttal is, "you're wrong, I'm right."

If you wish to get any better at this, you'll need to research the issues Laffitte presents, research the sources. In such, you'll find ample argument to rebut his statements. Also, don't just post links to sites and say that's your argument (as Laffitte has done quite often). Examine the information, provide a summary, and then follow up with a link to your source(s). At present I'm under the weather (sick, aww) and on the road, so am not motivated to respond. However, I'll provide some points to help you out on showing the flaws to his argument.

Sources
One of his major arguments is that of "scientists" in opposition to Climate Change. This argument is incredibly weak. With over 98% of the world's leading experts concluding Man is indeed responsible for Climate Change and the results of our inaction will be catastrophic, you can go in two directions:

1. Show the many proponents (and their statements), both of the IPCC results, and of AGW:
  • American Geophysical Union <click here>
  • Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences
  • Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
  • European Geosciences Union
  • International Council for Science
  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (U.S.)
  • National Research Council (U.S.)
  • Network of African Science Academies
  • Royal Meteorological Society
  • Geological Society of London
  • And many, many others...

As an example, you can present an excerpt from one of the letters. Such as the one in March of 2010, when over 250 U.S. scientists sent a letter to U.S. Federal agencies stating, "None of the handful of mis-statements (out of hundreds and hundreds of unchallenged statements) remotely undermines the conclusion that 'warming of the climate system is unequivocal' and that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations."

2. Show the quoted (or linked) handful of opponents, their "financial" records demonstrating how they are shills for the oil industry, as well as their misrepresentation. I.e., in this case an easy target is Laffitte's dependence on "Friends of Science," an organization that has thrice been outed for receiving the bulk of their financial support from the oil industry and whose "science" panel consists of two science professors (non-research) and one economist, with the remaining staff being non-scientists. As well, "Friends of Science's" main argument is that Global Warming is due to solar activity, which was firmly debunked in 1999. However, extensive propaganda forced additional research, which once again firmly debunked the "solar activity as the cause of global warming" argument, with 2008-2009 studies that clearly agreed with NASA's earlier conclusions (do recall, he quoted a ramble from 2007, which is still on their website, demonstrating they are not into truth, but into propaganda). Indeed, even their website is owned and operated by Charles Simpson, a "retired" oil industry employee:


Evidence (Credible Data & Charts)
Another of his arguments is that the data used are questionable, guesses, and/or wrong. One main argument was that the "extremes" never came to pass. Well, considering predictions are just that and, as such, are in reference to "future" events, not tomorrow's events as Laffitte is attempting to infer (which, btw, is a typical fallacy argument pertaining to climatological research, as opposed to meteorological research --- long-term climatic changes, as opposed to short-term atmospheric changes). This is an easy counter, simply by providing graphs from reputable sources, discussing the information pertaining to those charts, and from demonstrating the difference between meteorology and climatology:

etc and so on...

I mentioned earlier how the main argument posed by "Friends of Science" is that it is solar induced. This is easily countered through presentation of actual studies:


Quotes such as, "the hypothesized effect is too small to play a significant role in current climate change" may add weight to your presented links, and thus discredit one of Laffitte's main sources.​

Charts such as this further demonstrate the fallacy of the argument:

Solar_vs_Temp_basic.gif


Go Beyond
Further arguments can be presented regarding the issue of water vapor as the cause of imbalance, and thus global warming. Effective arguments can be obtained from a multitude of sources, including:


Point being, you cannot effectively argue this, or any other issue, by asking questions from the opposing debater. You need to look it up yourself and demonstrate, through effective presentation backed by data from credible sources, the opposition's incorrect postulations.

And now I disappear for a time, as typing inbetween sneezes is really friggin' annoying --- and really messing up my monitor (eww). So, Rice, run with the information I provided and more effectively debate the silly arguments being presented by Laffitte.
 
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DeletedUser

I was wondering when Rice was going to gain some artillery support, perhaps he'll be able to advance now.

lol global warming is the same as climate change, just one is more politically correct than the other. moving on, co2 is positively correlated with temperature and it is only after the industrial revolution that co2 levels have spiked far beyond where they've ever been before.

Now to dissect this gem. First of all stop firing off LOL's at every opportunity it doesn't look professional. Moving on global warming vs climate change, there is a difference as one (climate change) refers to natural changes in earth's climate compared to global warming's human induced climate change. We were both wrong in using it and it is often misrepresented elsewhere. Under that heading referring to global warming as climate change is not PC but a misrepresentation and I will from this point forward debate global warming under the name global warming. And call the current situation what I believe it is climate change. (http://weather.about.com/od/climatechange/f/global_warming_climate_change.htm)

The second part of your statement is inaccurate in light of past incidences of climate change. Although you will (if you take Hellstromm's advice and bother to research) find arguments against what I say in the following. What I point out is that in the past CO2 levels lagged 600-1000 years behind temperature fluctuations, there is not a direct correlation with a lag time of even under a 100 years. It is the rising temperatures that induce the seas to release more CO2 and how is it that temperatures fall back after these large releases? And also there are greater spikes than the current one in the planet's history, albeit they were quite some time ago.

Milankovitch_Cycles_400000.gif


As for Hellstromm's statements. When it comes to sources my primary support wasn't coming just from "Friend's of Science", I went to a variety places unlike Rice who only presented Physorg articles most of the time. And finances, just remember that the sources given to you are funded by the "Green" Industry and "Green" activists who have an equal if not greater interest in supporting climate change as compared to the oil industry whose existence is not driven by global warming.

And where does that 98% statistic keep on popping up from? Please show me where this "factual" number comes from. And not Hellstromm said, "98% of of the world's leading expert..." Which differs from 98% of scientists as there are by default fewer LEADING experts than scientists.

Also, "the hypothesized effect is too small to play a significant role in current climate change." Find the source and the proof.
 
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DeletedUser

Moving on global warming vs climate change, there is a difference as one (climate change) refers to natural changes in earth's climate compared to global warming's human induced climate change. We were both wrong in using it and it is often misrepresented elsewhere. Under that heading referring to global warming as climate change is not PC but a misrepresentation and I will from this point forward debate global warming under the name global warming. And call the current situation what I believe it is climate change. (http://weather.about.com/od/climatechange/f/global_warming_climate_change.htm)
You need to stop relying on misinformation presented at About.com. The information presented at that site is often without attribution or authorship. In this case, it's without attribution, without authorship, and it's simply butt-plain wrong.

Climate change refers to changes in the statistical properties of climate (regional or worldwide) as examined over a long period of time, causation notwithstanding. Global warming refers specifically to the increase in greenhouse gases being a causation of global temperature rises, again over a long period of time. It is, for discussion of these issues in a debate, more appropriate to refer to it all as Climate Change, since debates of this nature discuss periods extending beyond the past 100+ years and refer to both natural and unnatural influences (Global Warming being a sub-label that is not all-encompassing and that has resulted in much confusion, particularly due to propagandists' exploitation of the word, "warming").

The second part of your statement is inaccurate in light of past incidences of climate change. Although you will (if you take Hellstromm's advice and bother to research) find arguments against what I say in the following. What I point out is that in the past CO2 levels lagged 600-1000 years behind temperature fluctuations, there is not a direct correlation with a lag time of even under a 100 years. It is the rising temperatures that induce the seas to release more CO2 and how is it that temperatures fall back after these large releases? And also there are greater spikes than the current one in the planet's history, albeit they were quite some time ago.
And that's a fallacy of examination. Long past incidents were due to other, often natural, factors <click here>, with CO2 rises being a consequence of such, and which resulted in even higher temperatures as a result (note as well these rises were, as you indicated, slowly introduced, with CO2 rises also being far slower). I.e., CO2 did not initiate the rises, but did contribute to it at a later stage. However, and here's your mistake here, CO2 does have an influence. And, as Man has introduced a higher concentration of CO2 into the atmosphere (faster than it can be converted by natural means), they are indeed influencing the world's climate (leading, instead of merely amplifying).

As well, your presentation of "greater spikes in the past" is misleading, to say the least. Not only has there "never" been a spike in CO2 levels as dramatic as is presently documented (change in), incidents of CO2 levels comparable to what we are presently dealing with reaches back to a time when CO2 levels were "normally high." You know, when dinosaurs walked the Earth in sweltering pits of hell? Yeah, umm... way back then, when the dynamics and landscape of the Earth was quite different, far more extreme.

So yes, it is unprecedented, in that there is "nothing presently on Earth" that could have naturally caused what is presently being experienced. Point too far in the past, and you ignore the circumstances, take it out of context and argue a fallacy.

Also, that graph you presented does not demonstrate the recent CO2 spike. Convenient, is it not? In fact, if you look at that graph, it only goes as high as about 295 parts per million. Why is that? Well, that's because the graph is pertaining to the Milankovich theory on ice ages, and is not particularly relevant to present-day Global Warming.

You know what it is right now? 393 PARTS PER MILLION! <click here>

Which means, if we're going to look at a "true" presentation of that self-same chart, have it address Global Warming in comparison to the whole of Climate Change over the past 400,000 years, it would look like this:

Milankovitch_Cycles_400000_.jpg


Wala, this clearly demonstrates that the Earth is playing "catch-up" when it comes to temperature rise, and that we're under the gun right now to prevent a rather dramatic temperature increase.

As for Hellstromm's statements. When it comes to sources my primary support wasn't coming just from "Friend's of Science", I went to a variety places unlike Rice who only presented Physorg articles most of the time.
It is likely that all of your contributing sources were just as tainted as Friend's of Science, but I'm leaving that for Rice to practice with.

And finances, just remember that the sources given to you are funded by the "Green" Industry and "Green" activists who have an equal if not greater interest in supporting climate change as compared to the oil industry whose existence is not driven by global warming.
Patently false. To maintain this bit of propaganda, you'll need to provide evidence. Rice, you should pressure him for it. ;)

And where does that 98% statistic keep on popping up from? Please show me where this "factual" number comes from. And not Hellstromm said, "98% of of the world's leading expert..." Which differs from 98% of scientists as there are by default fewer LEADING experts than scientists.
The 98% comes from many quoted statements, based on polls (and studies), some of which are presented here:


Also, "the hypothesized effect is too small to play a significant role in current climate change." Find the source and the proof.
Umm, Lafitte, it's right there on a summary of one of the linked studies I provided earlier. Perhaps you should try and click on some of those links yourself, maybe gain an education on what awaits you in debate.

Okay, out of Windex to clean my monitor, so someone else have fun.
 
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DeletedUser

Rice, it is not my goal to discourage you from debating, but instead to discourage you from losing debates for lack of research and preparation.

Here's a series of videos that is very informative and entertaining (providing insight into the international debate, the main players of these debates, as well as the facts and opposing propaganda):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeQfD2DNnUQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F25gZvmMJJM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ovluo-FdIp4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx4jnddLoIQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-r8dtdLMls
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8cH8JMMew8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGfnryuDwec
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYaAlyu8vbA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96Cb3sWjRGY
 
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DeletedUser

Granted, I envisioned a discussion on current solutions and which ones would be optimal for an AGW thread, but I will leave that for later.
Hmm, Rice. Did you want to start on, "discussion on current solutions?"
 

DeletedUser

some solutions:
1. space-based solar
pros: very efficient and easy transmission of power
cons: expensive, requires gov't support, may or may not collide with space trash

2. nuclear(fission and fusion)
pros: lots of energy available
cons: will take decades

3. emissions reductions
pros: higher efficiency, cleaner air
cons: chindia not on board atm, and little progress so far worldwide

4. geoengineering
pros: buys time
cons: pumping sulfer into the atmosphere may have unforeseen negative effects and my idea to freeze a bunch of ice to absolute zero and release it at the polar regions would be impossible

5. pv solar, wind, wave, geothermal
pros: looks cute
cons: won't have much of an impact
 

DeletedUser

Alright, we've spent half the thread fighting over the truth of "Anthropogenic Global Warming". To tell the truth I thought AGW stood for "Anti-Global Warming". It seems Rice wants to change gears though. And I in my kindness and mercy shall compromise and debate and be critical of the "solutions" he offers to the "problem".

some solutions:
1. space-based solar
pros: very efficient and easy transmission of power
cons: expensive, requires gov't support, may or may not collide with space trash

2. nuclear(fission and fusion)
pros: lots of energy available
cons: will take decades

3. emissions reductions
pros: higher efficiency, cleaner air
cons: chindia not on board atm, and little progress so far worldwide

4. geoengineering
pros: buys time
cons: pumping sulfer into the atmosphere may have unforeseen negative effects and my idea to freeze a bunch of ice to absolute zero and release it at the polar regions would be impossible

5. pv solar, wind, wave, geothermal
pros: looks cute
cons: won't have much of an impact

Let's see here, ahh number one. I would like to know how it's easy to transfer power from a satellite in OUTERSPACE to a power grid on Earth. What may I ask is simple about that? We might as well build an elevator to the moon and colonize it if we're going with space based solar!

Number 2, Nuclear. I'm on board with this one. Nuclear power doesn't scare me. But what is this? "It will take decades." There are several companies all over the globe like B&W (http://www.babcock.com/) that are chomping at the bit to make nuclear power widely available (courtesy of their reactors of course). If people didn't think that every nuclear plant is Cherynobyll it could happen in a short time. If opinion can be changed I believe nuclear would not take decades.

Number 3, that old favorite of "Global Warming" proponents known as emissions reduction. Tell me, how does reduced emissions always equal greater efficiency? Case in point emmisions compliant engines that change a decent 6mpg or so in a truck to 4mpg or worse. Why in the world is it better if the emmisions are reduced only to have greater fuel consumption, when you could have greater efficiency with less consumption?

Number 4, Geoengineering... Well, uh yeah I really don't see how any sane person thinks sulfur pumping even makes sense. And absolute zero ice, how will you move it and how is that even workable?

Number 5, the old standbys of solar, wind, wave, and geothermal. Each is a good idea when applied to the correct area yet you think it won't have an impact in your world of "evil" emissions. While I think it's ridiculous to think that these technologies could replace coal or natural gas with ease your idea that they're just cute is laughable. Also I'm amazed you didn't mention hydropower, a resource that is great, when enviromentalists aren't whining about dams.
 

DeletedUser

about time you admitted defeat :)
moving on...
1. the science is proven
2. see my nuclear ftw thread for a better reactor
3. I wasn't talking about cars, I was talking about overall carbon emissions.
4. it's called magic
5. wave = hydropower

lol i don't see why you're even arguing when i presented the pros and the cons....
 

DeletedUser

Admit defeat? I did nothing of the sort, I'm just being so kind as to meet you at a point where you can debate and where I can push you out of your pie in the sky and into the glaring light of reality.

Number one may be suffering from overly positive expectations of the designers. Remember the science to build a lightsaber is proven, but to actually make it no way. The same is true here, our friends in Japan are quite positive but in reality there are so many problems from properly aiming the laser to the amount of energy lost in transmission (it is a long distance) makes this a pie in the sky that would consume a disproportionate amount of resources vs benefits.

2. I will be doing that.

3. So you're referring to emissions reductions in general, well stuffing it underground can eventually negatively impact the stability of the land above it and as for scrubbers and other "cleaning equipment". While controlling poisons and pollutants is a must, supposed greenhouse gases are a nightmare since no matter what things like CO2 are going to always escape. It creates greater expense for little true benefit.

4. Am I supposed to laugh? Or do you mean to say that proposal was another pipedream you had?

5. Wavepower depends on tides and winds, hydropower depends on the flow of currents. The difference is minimal but there. If you want to encompass water being harnessed to produce electricity just call it hydropower in general. Wavepower is more specialized.

Why am I arguing? Well how else was I supposed to respond, can't I be critical of your view of pros and cons?
 

DeletedUser

well, you're not saying anything new. i've already presented both sides of the debate. so going back to agw.....the floor is yours. please try your best to refute all of the evidence stacked against you.
 
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