Yep, NPC's too difficult for lower levels. I'm level 54 with
99 reflex
99 dodging
110 aiming
134 shooting
100 tactics
88 appearance
and I'm getting slaaaaaauuuuuughtered 75% of the time. Even free guy Big Fred is wasting me consistently.
To the best of my knowledge its a straight up RNG with 90% payout independent of gear (with caveats about weapons that do less damage than a fist and/or having less than 10% max HP)